Migration & Real Estate

For decades, Arizona has been one of several destination goals of illegal immigrants filtering their way into the United States by way of Mexico. The lure of jobs, as a means to earn money to bring other family members across the boarder, coupled with the benefit and assistance programs funded by the taxes of legal citizens, that only illegal immigrants seem to qualify for, have created a steady stream of boarder crossings.

During the recent housing boom, a greater number have made Maricopa County their final destination, and recent news have estimated 12 million illegal immigrants live and work in the United States. The increase of illegals in the local population also helped fuel the housing boom, and now seems to be adding to the real estate and mortgage crisis.

There are no statistics, that I am aware of, on the direct impact or the numbers of illegals effecting the current real estate market. However, in 2007, Arizona foreclosures were up 566% from 2006 with an estimate of 10,000 or more vacant homes on the market, and a prediction of more to come in 2008. With the passing into law of the Employers Sanctions, which took effect January 1, 2008, more companies are laying off undocumented workers to avoid having their licenses suspended or permanently revoked.

These workers who bought homes are no longer able to pay their mortgage which adds to the number of foreclosures and abandoned homes. In addition, many who took advantage of assistance programs to purchase homes, did not have jobs or income to make their payments, and relied on refinancing, in some cases several times, to draw out the increase in equity during the boom.

Recently is has also been reported that several towns along the U.S./Mexico boarder have been gearing up for what they call a “Reverse Wave of Migration”. With Arizona now being labeled as one of the toughest places for illegal immigrants, increases in deportations, and the employer sanctions, many illegals are expected to return south of the boarder. But migrant shelters and human smugglers are telling the illegal immigrants they need to go farther north into the United States for better wages and fewer Border Patrol agents.

Smuggles in Tijuana that normally charged $2,000 for crossing into California or Arizona, are now charging $3,000 to $5,000 to avoid boarder states for more desirable locations such as Oregon, Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, and Washington D.C..

Any way you look at it, where ever they go, many who are leaving Arizona on their own or by deportation, are definitely contributing to the number of foreclosures and the oversupply of housing in the local market.

LP/SP RATIO

We all know appraisals are being scrutinized more these days than in the past by lenders, underwriters and reviewers. We also know the main reason(s) for this, if we keep up with the news and happenings within the Real Estate Industry. With the declining market so wide spread, there is a reinforcing of expectations on the part of underwriters and reviewers and is being carried over to appraisal standards.

One of the main areas of an appraisal, that AACAZ has noticed, being looked at closely (in a declining market) is the support for the value conclusion. An Appraisers responsibility is to certify that they have performed an objective and complete analysis of quantifiable data supporting their conclusion, with a strong emphasis these days on: property value trends and market trends – supply and demand – concessions – sale dates and proximity of comparables - marketing time and exposure time – days on market.

There have been numerous Blogs, Posts, Comments, recently and in the past about concessions, disclosures, absorption rate, matched pair sales, cost to cure, all of which should be addressed in the reports ( NOTE: I will be adding new posts on these topics in the future). But there is one thing that is probably over-looked, neglected, or unknown that needs to be included. That is: List-To-Sale Price Ratio.

Realtors can, and some do, use this as a marketing tool for clients by telling sellers their sale price ratio is higher than others, which means a higher return at closing, or getting the property sold at or closer to the listing price. But that ratio is calculated on the performance of the individual Realtor and not the market.List-To-Sale Price Ratio, sometimes referred to as Sale Price Ratio or LPSP%, is a simple calculation to determine the ratio percentage between the list price and the sale price. Formula: Sale Price divided by List Price equals Ratio (%).

What this indicates, and what it is being looked at for, is seller’s of previously sold comps, willingness to negotiate and by how much. It is also an indicator of the market trend – increasing, stable, or declining. Adjusting the listings by the LPSP% calculated on the sales, a supporting indication of value is presented because of the Principle of Substitution, applied to the listings. By adjusting the listings and arranging all comps and listings from oldest to newest, will show higher or lower values as you move forward in time, proving a positive or negative time adjustment that can be calculated as a monthly percentage. The analysis results are an upper limit of value and a market trend direction.

Appraisers should have in their work files documented research supporting the market conditions reported (LP/SP ratio, concessions, active/pending listings, absorption rate, etc) along with comments in the report to comply with Standard Rule 1-1 for Credibility and the Competency Rule of USPAP. AACAZ is USPAP compliant.

Historical Properties

When it comes to appraising Historical Properties, more specifically residential historic properties, an appraiser can find themselves in a very interesting and educational situation, or a complete nightmare. Either way, AACAZ does not appraise historic properties.

Most major cities have historic districts (for example – Phoenix has 35 historic districts), however, not all residential properties within a particular historic district are in fact “Historical”. You might ask “What is a historic property?” A historic property is a property that is designated, or has been determined eligible for designation, at the local, state, or federal level. The property, or properties, must either be important for representing broad patterns of history, associated with the life of a historically important person, or for archeological contributions. More simply put – associated with a historical person, place or event.

Generally speaking, a historic property has roughly a 25% higher value than similar non-historic properties.

With that in mind, I came across an article today, in the Daily Real Estate News (their source was The Associated Press), that I found interesting, unusual, and slightly humorous, given the increase in foreclosures and the current real estate market conditions.


Daily Real Estate News January 14, 2008
Woman Sells Pieces of her Foreclosed Home
An Ontario, Calif., woman, who tried to save her home from foreclosure by selling its period flooring, baseboards, and other fixtures on eBay, was evicted and the house was secured by local police.

A Superior Court judge intervened after the city complained that the home was being desecrated. The city had an interest because it gave the 71-year-old Mediterranean Revival home owner a break on property taxes because the property is considered historic.

Owner Kim Shewalter stopped paying her mortgage after payments adjusted to $6,500 a month. "Until the bank takes it away, that's my home," she says.Shewalter says she was only removing and selling items that she installed in the home herself, such as a set of custom-made cabinets and an antique light fixture she inherited from her grandmother.

"I have to give my house back to the bank, and I want to be sure I recoup a little bit of my money," she says.

With the increase of Pre-Foreclosures, Foreclosures, Short Sales, Abandoned Properties, Bank Owned Properties (all of which I do provide appraisal service for) on the market today and many more to come, I would not consider this an isolated event. It is however the first I have heard regarding a Historic Property.